Long Eaton United 1–1 Leicester Road

Long Eaton United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester Road

1/1/2025

League #55 · Northern Midlands - 25Grange Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Long Eaton United32%

×Draw28%

Leicester Road40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Long Eaton UnitedExpected goals in this matchLeicester Road

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.23

Long Eaton United

1.06

Leicester Road

1.23

Leicester Road creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Long Eaton United

1.00

Leicester Road

1.13

allows per match

Long Eaton United

1.33

Leicester Road

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Long Eaton United+0.00on par

Leicester Road+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long Eaton United ↓

Leicester Road →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Long Eaton United or draw

60%

Long Eaton United or Leicester Road

72%

Draw or Leicester Road

68%

Winning margin

Long Eaton United wins by 2+

12%

Leicester Road wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Long Eaton United 1+ goals

65%

Long Eaton United 2+ goals

29%

Long Eaton United 3+ goals

9%

Leicester Road 1+ goals

71%

Leicester Road 2+ goals

35%

Leicester Road 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Long Eaton United (draw refunded)

44%

Leicester Road (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long Eaton United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Leicester Road away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long Eaton United attack 1.00 + Leicester Road defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Leicester Road attack 1.13 + Long Eaton United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Long Eaton United scores more

32%

level

28%

Leicester Road scores more

40%

Leicester Road at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester Road will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff