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Long An vs Dak Lak — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dak Lak
Dak Lak
7/8/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 6Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Long An45%
×Draw28%
Dak Lak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.33
Dak Lak
0.97

Long An creates 37% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 21 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Dak Lak
0.95

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Dak Lak
1.33

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Dak Lak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Long An or draw
73%
Long An or Dak Lak
72%
Draw or Dak Lak
55%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
21%
Dak Lak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
74%
Long An 2+ goals
38%
Long An 3+ goals
15%
Dak Lak 1+ goals
62%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
25%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
62%
Dak Lak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Long An scores more
45%
level
28%
Dak Lak scores more
27%

Long An at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Long An vs Dak Lak

Long An beat Dak Lak 1-0 in V.League 2 on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.