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Long An vs Binh Duong — Cup 2019

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Binh Duong
Binh Duongadvanced
3/13/2024CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Long An30%
×Draw24%
Binh Duong46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.28
Binh Duong
1.66

Binh Duong creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Long An
1.00
Binh Duong
1.56

allows per match

Long An
1.75
Binh Duong
1.56

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Long An or draw
54%
Long An or Binh Duong
76%
Draw or Binh Duong
70%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
13%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
72%
Long An 2+ goals
37%
Long An 3+ goals
14%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
81%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
49%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
39%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.00 + Binh Duong defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Binh Duong attack 1.56 + Long An defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Long An scores more
30%
level
24%
Binh Duong scores more
46%

Binh Duong at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Long An 1–3 Binh Duong

Binh Duong beat Long An 3-1 in Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.