Londrina 1–3 São Bernardo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

São Bernardo

Helder Maciel 85' (OG)

Dudu Miraima 59', 21'

Daniel Amorim 7'

5/12/2026

Serie B · Round 8Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Londrina37%

×Draw28%

São Bernardo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchSão Bernardo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Londrina

1.21

São Bernardo

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.13

creates per match

1.26

1.13

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Londrina

1.13

São Bernardo

1.26

allows per match

Londrina

1.13

São Bernardo

1.30

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

Londrina-0.25scores less

São Bernardo+0.74scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

São Bernardo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

64%

Londrina or São Bernardo

72%

Draw or São Bernardo

63%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

16%

São Bernardo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

70%

Londrina 2+ goals

34%

Londrina 3+ goals

12%

São Bernardo 1+ goals

70%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

33%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

51%

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

São Bernardo away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.13 + São Bernardo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

São Bernardo attack 1.26 + Londrina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Londrina scores more

37%

level

28%

São Bernardo scores more

36%

Londrina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Dudu Miraima

São Bernardo · M

9.0

Match Events

4'

Pablo Dyego← Fabricio Daniel

7'

Daniel Amorim↳ Romisson

21'

25'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

Juninho← E. Rodriguez

46'

Kaue Leonardo← Weverton

52'

Foguinho

59'

Dudu Miraima

66'

Marcao Silva← Foguinho

66'

Felipe Garcia← Daniel Amorim

75'

Lucas Rian← Dudu Miraima

76'

Lucas Fernandes← Echapora

78'

Joao Tavares← Lucas Marques

85'

Paulinho Moccelin← Thalis

85'

Helder MacielOwn goal

90+1'

Yago Lincoln

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaSão

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots8

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.69

9Corners2

13Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots8

1On Target3

9Off Target4

3Blocked1

2Inside Box5

11Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

489Total Passes455

429Accurate Passes386

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.93Goals Prevented-0.93

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2