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Londrina vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Londrina
Londrina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
CSA
CSA
Iury 45+4'
Yuri 41'
9/18/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 24Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Londrina41%
×Draw30%
CSA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina
1.16
CSA
0.94

Londrina creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 67 away

creates per match

Londrina
1.21
CSA
0.88

allows per match

Londrina
1.00
CSA
1.10

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par
CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 65Over: 3565%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

CSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Londrina or draw
70%
Londrina or CSA
70%
Draw or CSA
59%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+
17%
CSA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals
69%
Londrina 2+ goals
32%
Londrina 3+ goals
11%
CSA 1+ goals
61%
CSA 2+ goals
24%
CSA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)
58%
CSA (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.21 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

CSA attack 0.88 + Londrina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Londrina scores more
41%
level
30%
CSA scores more
30%

Londrina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
ErnandesCSACSA · D
8.3

Match Events

37'
Lucas Lourenço
40'
Lucão
41'
Yuri↳ Iury
45+4'
Iury↳ Ernandes
46'
Gegé← Lucas Lourenço
46'
Caprini← Tárik
60'
Luiz Henrique← Celsinho
60'
Dellatorre← Nilson
60'
Renato Cajá← Marco Túlio
73'
Éverton Silva← Cristovam
77'
Geovane← Yuri
77'
Reinaldo← Iury
79'
Pedro Cacho← Matheus Bianqui
80'
Salatiel← Gabriel Ramos
81'
Caprini
90+4'
Jhonny Lucas
90+3'
Gegê

Possession

Londrina: 49CSA: 5149%Londrina

Shots

Londrina: 15CSA: 1315Londrina

Pass accuracy

Londrina: 77CSA: 8049%Londrina

Statistics

LondrinaCSA
Overview
49%Possession51%
15Total Shots13
8Corners6
22Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots13
3On Target4
9Off Target7
3Blocked2
10Inside Box10
5Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
346Total Passes376
266Accurate Passes300
77%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
22Fouls16
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Londrina 0 – 2 CSA

CSA beat Londrina 2-0 in Serie B on September 18, 2021.

Goals: Yuri (41'), Iury (45+4').

CSA controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.