Londrina 2–1 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie B

Londrina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brusque

Caprini 74'

Douglas Coutinho 32'

Diego Jardel 68' (pen)

5/14/2022

Serie B · Round 7Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Londrina52%

×Draw27%

Brusque21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.81

Londrina

1.44

Brusque

0.81

Londrina creates 78% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 57 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

1.00

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Londrina

1.21

Brusque

0.63

allows per match

Londrina

1.00

Brusque

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

79%

Londrina or Brusque

73%

Draw or Brusque

48%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

26%

Brusque wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

76%

Londrina 2+ goals

42%

Londrina 3+ goals

18%

Brusque 1+ goals

56%

Brusque 2+ goals

19%

Brusque 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

71%

Brusque (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Brusque away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.68 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.21 + Brusque defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brusque attack 0.63 + Londrina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Londrina scores more

52%

level

27%

Brusque scores more

21%

Londrina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Douglas Coutinho

Londrina · F

8.0

Match Events

32'

Douglas Coutinho

46'

Jailson← Luiz Antônio

46'

Balotelli← Felipe Manoel

55'

60'

60'

65'

68'

Diego JardelPenalty

72'

Wagner Balotelli

74'

Caprini↳ Douglas Coutinho

77'

Mandaca← Marcinho

77'

Eltinho← Felipe Vieira

84'

Watson← Caprini

84'

Alex Ruan← Airton

85'

Kaio Nunes← Júnior Todinho

85'

Toty← Pará

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaBrusque

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots15

2Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots15

5On Target5

4Off Target5

5Blocked5

5Inside Box10

9Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

334Total Passes529

266Accurate Passes467

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4