Londrina U20 3–1 Gremio Maringa U20: Result & Stats

Londrina U20

FT

3 – 1

Gremio Maringa U20

3/16/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Londrina U2082%

×Draw11%

Gremio Maringa U208%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Londrina U20Expected goals in this matchGremio Maringa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.55

1.06

Londrina U20

3.55

Gremio Maringa U20

1.06

Londrina U20 creates 235% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

2.44

creates per match

0.50

1.63

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Londrina U20

2.44

Gremio Maringa U20

0.50

allows per match

Londrina U20

1.63

Gremio Maringa U20

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina U20+0.00on par

Gremio Maringa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina U20 ↓

Gremio Maringa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Londrina U20 or draw

92%

Londrina U20 or Gremio Maringa U20

89%

Draw or Gremio Maringa U20

18%

Winning margin

Londrina U20 wins by 2+

64%

Gremio Maringa U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Londrina U20 1+ goals

97%

Londrina U20 2+ goals

86%

Londrina U20 3+ goals

67%

Gremio Maringa U20 1+ goals

65%

Gremio Maringa U20 2+ goals

29%

Gremio Maringa U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Londrina U20 (draw refunded)

92%

Gremio Maringa U20 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina U20 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Gremio Maringa U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina U20 attack 2.44 + Gremio Maringa U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.55

Gremio Maringa U20 attack 0.50 + Londrina U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Londrina U20 scores more

82%

level

11%

Gremio Maringa U20 scores more

8%

Londrina U20 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Londrina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff