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Londrina U20 vs Campo Mourao U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Londrina U20
Londrina U20
FT
4 – 3
Campo Mourao U20
Campo Mourao U20
4/13/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 7Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Londrina U2077%
×Draw13%
Campo Mourao U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina U20
3.38
Campo Mourao U20
1.23

Londrina U20 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Londrina U20
2.44
Campo Mourao U20
0.83

allows per match

Londrina U20
1.63
Campo Mourao U20
4.33

finishing

Londrina U20+0.00on par
Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina U20 ↓

Campo Mourao U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Londrina U20 or draw
90%
Londrina U20 or Campo Mourao U20
87%
Draw or Campo Mourao U20
23%

Winning margin

Londrina U20 wins by 2+
58%
Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Londrina U20 1+ goals
96%
Londrina U20 2+ goals
84%
Londrina U20 3+ goals
64%
Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals
71%
Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals
35%
Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Londrina U20 (draw refunded)
88%
Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina U20 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Campo Mourao U20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina U20 attack 2.44 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.38

Campo Mourao U20 attack 0.83 + Londrina U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Londrina U20 scores more
77%
level
13%
Campo Mourao U20 scores more
10%

Londrina U20 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Londrina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Londrina U20 4–3 Campo Mourao U20

Londrina U20 beat Campo Mourao U20 4-3 in Paranaense U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.