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London Seaward vs Norwich City — FA Women's Cup 2019

London Seaward
London Seaward
FT
1 – 3
Norwich City
Norwich City
10/22/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingOakside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

London Seaward51%
×Draw21%
Norwich City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

London Seaward
2.13
Norwich City
1.54

London Seaward creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

London Seaward
2.25
Norwich City
1.57

allows per match

London Seaward
1.50
Norwich City
2.00

finishing

London Seaward+0.00on par
Norwich City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London Seaward ↓

Norwich City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

London Seaward or draw
72%
London Seaward or Norwich City
79%
Draw or Norwich City
49%

Winning margin

London Seaward wins by 2+
30%
Norwich City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

London Seaward 1+ goals
88%
London Seaward 2+ goals
63%
London Seaward 3+ goals
35%
Norwich City 1+ goals
79%
Norwich City 2+ goals
45%
Norwich City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

London Seaward (draw refunded)
65%
Norwich City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

London Seaward at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Norwich City away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

London Seaward attack 2.25 + Norwich City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Norwich City attack 1.57 + London Seaward defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

London Seaward scores more
51%
level
21%
Norwich City scores more
28%

London Seaward at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "London Seaward will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: London Seaward vs Norwich City

Norwich City beat London Seaward 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Oakside Stadium in Ilford, Essex.