London City Lionesses W 0–5 Reading W

London City Lionesses W

0 – 5

Reading W

1/26/2020

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundPrinces Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

London City Lionesses W34%

×Draw20%

Reading W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

London City Lionesses WExpected goals in this matchReading W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.21

London City Lionesses W

1.88

Reading W

2.21

Reading W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

3.25

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

London City Lionesses W

2.50

Reading W

3.25

allows per match

London City Lionesses W

1.17

Reading W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par

Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London City Lionesses W ↓

Reading W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

London City Lionesses W or draw

54%

London City Lionesses W or Reading W

80%

Draw or Reading W

66%

Winning margin

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+

17%

Reading W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals

85%

London City Lionesses W 2+ goals

56%

London City Lionesses W 3+ goals

29%

Reading W 1+ goals

89%

Reading W 2+ goals

65%

Reading W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)

42%

Reading W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

London City Lionesses W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Reading W away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

London City Lionesses W attack 2.50 + Reading W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Reading W attack 3.25 + London City Lionesses W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

London City Lionesses W scores more

34%

level

20%

Reading W scores more

46%

Reading W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff