London City Lionesses W 0–1 Everton W

London City Lionesses W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Everton W

I. Gabarro 62'

2/8/2026

FA WSL · Round 15Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

London City Lionesses W41%

×Draw25%

Everton W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

London City Lionesses WExpected goals in this matchEverton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

London City Lionesses W

1.46

Everton W

1.29

London City Lionesses W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

1.45

creates per match

1.13

1.45

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

London City Lionesses W

1.45

Everton W

1.13

allows per match

London City Lionesses W

1.45

Everton W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par

Everton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London City Lionesses W ↓

Everton W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

London City Lionesses W or draw

67%

London City Lionesses W or Everton W

75%

Draw or Everton W

59%

Winning margin

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+

20%

Everton W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals

77%

London City Lionesses W 2+ goals

43%

London City Lionesses W 3+ goals

18%

Everton W 1+ goals

72%

Everton W 2+ goals

37%

Everton W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)

55%

Everton W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

London City Lionesses W at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Everton W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

London City Lionesses W attack 1.45 + Everton W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Everton W attack 1.13 + London City Lionesses W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

London City Lionesses W scores more

41%

level

25%

Everton W scores more

33%

London City Lionesses W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "London City Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

H. Kitagawa

Everton W · D

7.9

Match Events

52'

Grace Geyoro

60'

D. van de Donk← G. Geyoro

60'

M. Perez← S. Kumagai

62'

I. Gabarro↳ Y. Momiki

72'

Martina Fernández

74'

N. Parris← K. Asllani

74'

J. Roddar← P. Pattinson

74'

Z. Kramzar← R. van Gool

84'

Jana Fernandez

84'

Wassa Sangaré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondonEverton

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots8

15Corners4

12Fouls4

Shots

17Total Shots8

4On Target3

10Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

407Total Passes346

323Accurate Passes250

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls4

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

FA WSL: London City Lionesses W 0–1 Everton W

Everton W beat London City Lionesses W 1-0 in FA WSL on February 8, 2026.

Goals: I. Gabarro (62').

London City Lionesses W controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.

London City Lionesses W vs Everton W — FA WSL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FA WSL: London City Lionesses W 0–1 Everton W