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London City Lionesses W vs Cardiff City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

London City Lionesses W
London City Lionesses W
FT
4 – 0
Cardiff City W
Cardiff City W
12/8/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundHayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

London City Lionesses W56%
×Draw19%
Cardiff City W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

London City Lionesses W
2.65
Cardiff City W
1.78

London City Lionesses W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

London City Lionesses W
2.50
Cardiff City W
2.40

allows per match

London City Lionesses W
1.17
Cardiff City W
2.80

finishing

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par
Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London City Lionesses W ↓

Cardiff City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

London City Lionesses W or draw
74%
London City Lionesses W or Cardiff City W
81%
Draw or Cardiff City W
44%

Winning margin

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+
36%
Cardiff City W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals
93%
London City Lionesses W 2+ goals
74%
London City Lionesses W 3+ goals
48%
Cardiff City W 1+ goals
83%
Cardiff City W 2+ goals
53%
Cardiff City W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)
69%
Cardiff City W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

London City Lionesses W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Cardiff City W away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

London City Lionesses W attack 2.50 + Cardiff City W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.65

Cardiff City W attack 2.40 + London City Lionesses W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

London City Lionesses W scores more
56%
level
19%
Cardiff City W scores more
26%

London City Lionesses W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "London City Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: London City Lionesses W 4–0 Cardiff City W

London City Lionesses W beat Cardiff City W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.