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London City Lionesses W vs Billericay Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

London City Lionesses W
London City Lionesses W
FT
6 – 0
Billericay Town W
Billericay Town W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundPrinces Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

London City Lionesses W30%
×Draw19%
Billericay Town W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

London City Lionesses W
2.00
Billericay Town W
2.58

Billericay Town W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

London City Lionesses W
2.50
Billericay Town W
4.00

allows per match

London City Lionesses W
1.17
Billericay Town W
1.50

finishing

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par
Billericay Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London City Lionesses W ↓

Billericay Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

London City Lionesses W or draw
49%
London City Lionesses W or Billericay Town W
81%
Draw or Billericay Town W
70%

Winning margin

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+
16%
Billericay Town W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals
86%
London City Lionesses W 2+ goals
59%
London City Lionesses W 3+ goals
32%
Billericay Town W 1+ goals
92%
Billericay Town W 2+ goals
72%
Billericay Town W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)
38%
Billericay Town W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

London City Lionesses W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Billericay Town W away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

London City Lionesses W attack 2.50 + Billericay Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Billericay Town W attack 4.00 + London City Lionesses W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

London City Lionesses W scores more
30%
level
19%
Billericay Town W scores more
51%

Billericay Town W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Billericay Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: London City Lionesses W vs Billericay Town W

London City Lionesses W beat Billericay Town W 6-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Princes Park in Dartford, Kent.