London Bees W 0–6 Rugby Borough W: Result & Stats

London Bees W

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Rugby Borough W

1/12/2025

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundThe Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

London Bees W17%

×Draw16%

Rugby Borough W67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

London Bees WExpected goals in this matchRugby Borough W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

3.20

London Bees W

1.64

Rugby Borough W

3.20

Rugby Borough W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

3.00

3.40

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

London Bees W

2.60

Rugby Borough W

3.00

allows per match

London Bees W

3.40

Rugby Borough W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

London Bees W+0.00on par

Rugby Borough W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London Bees W ↓

Rugby Borough W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

London Bees W or draw

33%

London Bees W or Rugby Borough W

84%

Draw or Rugby Borough W

83%

Winning margin

London Bees W wins by 2+

Rugby Borough W wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

London Bees W 1+ goals

81%

London Bees W 2+ goals

49%

London Bees W 3+ goals

23%

Rugby Borough W 1+ goals

96%

Rugby Borough W 2+ goals

82%

Rugby Borough W 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

London Bees W (draw refunded)

21%

Rugby Borough W (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

London Bees W at home — creates 2.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Rugby Borough W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

London Bees W attack 2.60 + Rugby Borough W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rugby Borough W attack 3.00 + London Bees W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

London Bees W scores more

17%

level

16%

Rugby Borough W scores more

67%

Rugby Borough W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rugby Borough W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff