London Bees W 6–3 Queens Park Rangers

London Bees W

AET

6 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Queens Park Rangers

12/8/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

London Bees W30%

×Draw19%

Queens Park Rangers50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

London Bees WExpected goals in this matchQueens Park Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

2.54

London Bees W

1.97

Queens Park Rangers

2.54

Queens Park Rangers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

1.67

3.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

London Bees W

2.60

Queens Park Rangers

1.67

allows per match

London Bees W

3.40

Queens Park Rangers

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

London Bees W+0.00on par

Queens Park Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London Bees W ↓

Queens Park Rangers →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

London Bees W or draw

50%

London Bees W or Queens Park Rangers

81%

Draw or Queens Park Rangers

70%

Winning margin

London Bees W wins by 2+

16%

Queens Park Rangers wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

London Bees W 1+ goals

86%

London Bees W 2+ goals

58%

London Bees W 3+ goals

31%

Queens Park Rangers 1+ goals

92%

Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals

72%

Queens Park Rangers 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

London Bees W (draw refunded)

38%

Queens Park Rangers (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

London Bees W at home — creates 2.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

London Bees W attack 2.60 + Queens Park Rangers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Queens Park Rangers attack 1.67 + London Bees W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

London Bees W scores more

30%

level

19%

Queens Park Rangers scores more

50%

Queens Park Rangers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Queens Park Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff