Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

London Bees W vs Chatham Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

London Bees W
London Bees W
FT
3 – 2
Chatham Town W
Chatham Town W
11/24/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

London Bees W50%
×Draw18%
Chatham Town W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

London Bees W
3.20
Chatham Town W
2.60

London Bees W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

London Bees W
2.60
Chatham Town W
1.80

allows per match

London Bees W
3.40
Chatham Town W
3.80

finishing

London Bees W+0.00on par
Chatham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

London Bees W ↓

Chatham Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

London Bees W or draw
68%
London Bees W or Chatham Town W
82%
Draw or Chatham Town W
50%

Winning margin

London Bees W wins by 2+
32%
Chatham Town W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

London Bees W 1+ goals
96%
London Bees W 2+ goals
82%
London Bees W 3+ goals
60%
Chatham Town W 1+ goals
92%
Chatham Town W 2+ goals
73%
Chatham Town W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

London Bees W (draw refunded)
61%
Chatham Town W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

London Bees W at home — creates 2.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Chatham Town W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

London Bees W attack 2.60 + Chatham Town W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.20

Chatham Town W attack 1.80 + London Bees W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

London Bees W scores more
50%
level
18%
Chatham Town W scores more
32%

London Bees W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "London Bees W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: London Bees W vs Chatham Town W

London Bees W beat Chatham Town W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.