Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1–2 Merani Martvili

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Merani Martvili

L. Kalandadze 37'

J. Esonkulov 67' (pen), 5'

3/29/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Mikheil Meskhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi46%

×Draw24%

Merani Martvili30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotivi TbilisiExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.32

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.70

Merani Martvili

1.32

Lokomotivi Tbilisi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 83 away

1.76

creates per match

1.27

1.37

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.76

Merani Martvili

1.27

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.37

Merani Martvili

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw

70%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Merani Martvili

76%

Draw or Merani Martvili

54%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+

24%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals

82%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals

51%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals

24%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

73%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

38%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)

61%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more

46%

level

24%

Merani Martvili scores more

30%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Esonkulov

37'

L. Kalandadze↳ D. Amoako

39'

D. Khorava

46'

F. Chileshe← N. Gogokhia

46'

L. Kadaria← L. Chaladze

46'

M. Mushkudiani← B. Laghadze

46'

I. Shonia← Z. Sikharulia

58'

A. Jolokhava← G. Khetsuriani

67'

J. EsonkulovPenalty

68'

L. Metreveli← L. Kekelidze

68'

D. Assaye← D. Amoako

85'

A. Turkia← L. Menteshashvili

85'

S. Dvalishvili← L. Archaia

87'

T. Dzhamalutdinov← J. Esonkulov

Lokomotivi

Merani

1

29

2

3

11

19

17

▼

Khetsuria

33

▼

Laghadze

10

▼

Sikharuli

35

▼

Chaladze

7

⚽2

▼

1

22

16

8

4

15

▼

Gogokhia

10

▼

Kekelidze

9

▼

Menteshas

23

▼

Archaia

14

A

▼

Amoako

11

⚽

Kalandadz

Manager: G. Geguchadze

46'▲F. Chileshe←▼N. Gogokhia

68'▲L. Metreveli←▼L. Kekelidze

68'▲D. Assaye←▼D. Amoako

85'▲A. Turkia←▼L. Menteshashvili

85'▲S. Dvalishvili←▼L. Archaia

Lokomotivi Tbilisi substitutes

12Khelashvili3Molashvili6Chileshe7Turkia13Metreveli21Kvelashvili30Dvalishvili32Gogatishvili38Assaye

Manager: G. Khelaia

46'▲L. Kadaria←▼L. Chaladze

46'▲M. Mushkudiani←▼B. Laghadze

46'▲I. Shonia←▼Z. Sikharulia

58'▲A. Jolokhava←▼G. Khetsuriani

87'▲T. Dzhamalutdinov←▼J. Esonkulov

Merani Martvili substitutes

31Chachava8Kadaria9Jolokhava18Tsulaia21Dzhamalutdinov22Mushkudiani26Shonia30Bolotashvili