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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Kolkheti Poti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
9/15/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 26Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi48%
×Draw24%
Kolkheti Poti28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.74
Kolkheti Poti
1.27

Lokomotivi Tbilisi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.76
Kolkheti Poti
1.17

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.37
Kolkheti Poti
1.72

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
72%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Kolkheti Poti
76%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
52%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
26%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
25%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
72%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
36%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
63%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.74

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
48%
level
24%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
28%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Kolkheti Poti

Lokomotivi Tbilisi and Kolkheti Poti drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.