Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3–3 Kolkheti Khobi

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kolkheti Khobi

6/1/2024

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 16Mikheil Meskhi 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi59%

×Draw21%

Kolkheti Khobi20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotivi TbilisiExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Khobi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.16

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2.12

Kolkheti Khobi

1.16

Lokomotivi Tbilisi creates 83% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

1.76

creates per match

0.94

1.37

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.76

Kolkheti Khobi

0.94

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.37

Kolkheti Khobi

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw

80%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Kolkheti Khobi

79%

Draw or Kolkheti Khobi

41%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+

36%

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals

88%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals

62%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals

35%

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals

69%

Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals

32%

Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)

74%

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kolkheti Khobi attack 0.94 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more

59%

level

21%

Kolkheti Khobi scores more

20%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff