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Lokomotive Pamir vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
FT
2 – 3
Khatlon
Khatlon
S. Sulaymonov 82'
A. Khasanov 59'
X. Uzokov 67', 38', 30'
4/26/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 4Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lokomotive Pamir37%
×Draw25%
Khatlon38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotive Pamir
1.42
Khatlon
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 97 away

creates per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.44
Khatlon
0.97

allows per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.89
Khatlon
1.40

finishing

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Pamir ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotive Pamir or draw
62%
Lokomotive Pamir or Khatlon
75%
Draw or Khatlon
63%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
17%
Khatlon wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
41%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
17%
Khatlon 1+ goals
76%
Khatlon 2+ goals
42%
Khatlon 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
50%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Pamir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Khatlon away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Pamir attack 1.44 + Khatlon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Khatlon attack 0.97 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lokomotive Pamir scores more
37%
level
25%
Khatlon scores more
38%

Khatlon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
X. Uzokov
38'
X. Uzokov
59'
A. Khasanov
63'
M. Pirov
67'
X. Uzokov
82'
S. Sulaymonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotive Pamir vs Khatlon

Khatlon beat Lokomotive Pamir 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on April 26, 2020.

Goals: X. Uzokov (30', 38', 67'), A. Khasanov (59'), S. Sulaymonov (82').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dushanbe.