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Lokomotive Leipzig vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lokomotive Leipzig
Lokomotive Leipzig
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
S. Maderer 45'
1/17/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3IC Hotels Football Center - Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotive Leipzig60%
×Draw18%
Sportfreunde Siegen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotive Leipzig
2.75
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.67

Lokomotive Leipzig creates 65% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lokomotive Leipzig
2.00
Sportfreunde Siegen
2.00

allows per match

Lokomotive Leipzig
1.33
Sportfreunde Siegen
3.50

finishing

Lokomotive Leipzig+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Leipzig ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Lokomotive Leipzig or draw
78%
Lokomotive Leipzig or Sportfreunde Siegen
82%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
40%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Leipzig wins by 2+
40%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotive Leipzig 1+ goals
93%
Lokomotive Leipzig 2+ goals
75%
Lokomotive Leipzig 3+ goals
51%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
81%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
50%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Leipzig (draw refunded)
73%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Leipzig at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Leipzig attack 2.00 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.00 + Lokomotive Leipzig defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lokomotive Leipzig scores more
60%
level
18%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
22%

Lokomotive Leipzig at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotive Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
S. Maderer
Lokomotive
Sportfreunde
Jochen Seitz
Manager: Jochen Seitz
Thorsten Nehrbauer
Manager: Thorsten Nehrbauer

Friendlies Clubs: Lokomotive Leipzig 1–0 Sportfreunde Siegen

Lokomotive Leipzig beat Sportfreunde Siegen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2025.

Goals: S. Maderer (45').

The match was played at IC Hotels Football Center - Pitch A in Belek.