Lokomotive Leipzig 3–1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen

Lokomotive Leipzig

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotive Leipzig47%

×Draw23%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotive LeipzigExpected goals in this matchRot-weiss Oberhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.39

Lokomotive Leipzig

1.78

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.39

Lokomotive Leipzig creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Lokomotive Leipzig

2.00

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.44

allows per match

Lokomotive Leipzig

1.33

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotive Leipzig+0.00on par

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Leipzig ↓

Rot-weiss Oberhausen →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotive Leipzig or draw

70%

Lokomotive Leipzig or Rot-weiss Oberhausen

77%

Draw or Rot-weiss Oberhausen

53%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Leipzig wins by 2+

25%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lokomotive Leipzig 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotive Leipzig 2+ goals

53%

Lokomotive Leipzig 3+ goals

26%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals

75%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals

40%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Leipzig (draw refunded)

61%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Leipzig at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Leipzig attack 2.00 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 1.44 + Lokomotive Leipzig defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotive Leipzig scores more

47%

level

23%

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more

30%

Lokomotive Leipzig at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotive Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff