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Lokomotive Leipzig vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Lokomotive Leipzig
Lokomotive Leipzig
Preview
13:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
3/14/2027Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 25
Big match
57%
Lokomotive Leipzig
model favours
57%23%20%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lokomotive Leipzig57%
×Draw23%
Greifswalder FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotive Leipzig
1.79
Greifswalder FC
0.96

Lokomotive Leipzig creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lokomotive Leipzig
2.20
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

Lokomotive Leipzig
0.80
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

Lokomotive Leipzig+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Leipzig ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotive Leipzig or draw
80%
Lokomotive Leipzig or Greifswalder FC
77%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
43%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Leipzig wins by 2+
32%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotive Leipzig 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotive Leipzig 2+ goals
53%
Lokomotive Leipzig 3+ goals
26%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
62%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
25%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Leipzig (draw refunded)
74%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Leipzig at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Leipzig attack 2.20 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.79

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Lokomotive Leipzig defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lokomotive Leipzig scores more
57%
level
23%
Greifswalder FC scores more
20%

Lokomotive Leipzig at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lokomotive Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Lokomotive Leipzig sit 12, Greifswalder FC 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Leipzig
WLDLL
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotive Leipzig host Greifswalder FC

March 14, 2027: Lokomotive Leipzig take on Greifswalder FC in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.