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Greifswalder FC vs Lokomotive Leipzig — League #85 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotive Leipzig
Lokomotive Leipzig
T. Wagner 4'
A. Adetula 65'
5/10/2026League #85League #85 · Nordost - 33Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Greifswalder FC57%
×Draw23%
Lokomotive Leipzig20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.76
Lokomotive Leipzig
0.94

Greifswalder FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.27
Lokomotive Leipzig
0.75

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.13
Lokomotive Leipzig
2.25

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Lokomotive Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Lokomotive Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
80%
Greifswalder FC or Lokomotive Leipzig
77%
Draw or Lokomotive Leipzig
43%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
32%
Lokomotive Leipzig wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
83%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
52%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
26%
Lokomotive Leipzig 1+ goals
61%
Lokomotive Leipzig 2+ goals
24%
Lokomotive Leipzig 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
74%
Lokomotive Leipzig (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Lokomotive Leipzig away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.27 + Lokomotive Leipzig defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lokomotive Leipzig attack 0.75 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
57%
level
23%
Lokomotive Leipzig scores more
20%

Greifswalder FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
T. Wagner
65'
A. Adetula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greifswalder FC vs Lokomotive Leipzig

Greifswalder FC and Lokomotive Leipzig drew 1-1 in League #85 on May 10, 2026.

Goals: T. Wagner (4'), A. Adetula (65').

The match was played at Volksstadion Greifswald in Greifswald.