Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Žarnovica

Lokomotíva Zvolen

CANC

15:00

Žarnovica

5/22/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 24Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen37%

×Draw22%

Žarnovica41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotíva ZvolenExpected goals in this matchŽarnovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.88

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.78

Žarnovica

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

0.43

creates per match

1.04

2.71

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.43

Žarnovica

1.04

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

2.71

Žarnovica

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Žarnovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw

59%

Lokomotíva Zvolen or Žarnovica

78%

Draw or Žarnovica

63%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

19%

Žarnovica wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

53%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

26%

Žarnovica 1+ goals

85%

Žarnovica 2+ goals

56%

Žarnovica 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

47%

Žarnovica (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.43 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

37%

level

22%

Žarnovica scores more

41%

Žarnovica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Žarnovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff