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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
1 – 1
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
9/20/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 8Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen25%
×Draw23%
Tatran Krásno52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.24
Tatran Krásno
1.88

Tatran Krásno creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.43
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.71
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
48%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Tatran Krásno
77%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
75%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
10%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
35%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
13%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
85%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
56%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
33%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.43 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
25%
level
23%
Tatran Krásno scores more
52%

Tatran Krásno at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–1 Tatran Krásno

Lokomotíva Zvolen and Tatran Krásno drew 1-1 in 3. liga - Center on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.