Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–2 Podkonice: Result & Stats

Lokomotíva Zvolen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Podkonice

9/9/2023

3. liga - West · West - 6Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen57%

×Draw22%

Podkonice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotíva ZvolenExpected goals in this matchPodkonice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.05

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.88

Podkonice

1.05

Lokomotíva Zvolen creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

1.18

0.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

2.00

Podkonice

1.18

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.93

Podkonice

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Podkonice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw

79%

Lokomotíva Zvolen or Podkonice

78%

Draw or Podkonice

43%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

33%

Podkonice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

85%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

56%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

29%

Podkonice 1+ goals

65%

Podkonice 2+ goals

28%

Podkonice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

73%

Podkonice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 2.00 + Podkonice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

Podkonice attack 1.18 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

57%

level

22%

Podkonice scores more

21%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff