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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Liptovský Mikuláš — 2. liga 2019

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
8/24/20242. liga2. liga · Round 5Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen39%
×Draw24%
Liptovský Mikuláš37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.55
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 67 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.66

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.37
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.64

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
63%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Liptovský Mikuláš
76%
Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš
61%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
19%
Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
46%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
20%
Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
78%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
45%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
51%
Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.47 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
39%
level
24%
Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
37%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Lokomotíva Zvolen 3–1 Liptovský Mikuláš

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Liptovský Mikuláš 3-1 in 2. liga on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.