Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–3 Liptovská Štiavnica

Lokomotíva Zvolen

FT

1 – 3

Liptovská Štiavnica

9/6/2020

3. liga - Center · Center - 6Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen37%

×Draw23%

Liptovská Štiavnica40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotíva ZvolenExpected goals in this matchLiptovská Štiavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.73

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.65

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

0.43

creates per match

0.74

2.71

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.43

Liptovská Štiavnica

0.74

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

2.71

Liptovská Štiavnica

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw

60%

Lokomotíva Zvolen or Liptovská Štiavnica

77%

Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica

63%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

18%

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

49%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

23%

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

82%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

52%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

48%

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.43 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.65

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

37%

level

23%

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

40%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff