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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Fiľakovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
CANC
14:00
Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
4/24/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 20Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen20%
×Draw22%
Fiľakovo58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.02
Fiľakovo
1.91

Fiľakovo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.43
Fiľakovo
1.11

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.71
Fiľakovo
1.60

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Fiľakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Fiľakovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
42%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Fiľakovo
78%
Draw or Fiľakovo
80%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
7%
Fiľakovo wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
64%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
8%
Fiľakovo 1+ goals
85%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
57%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
26%
Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Fiľakovo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.43 + Fiľakovo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fiľakovo attack 1.11 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
20%
level
22%
Fiľakovo scores more
58%

Fiľakovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fiľakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Fiľakovo — Match Preview

Lokomotíva Zvolen face Fiľakovo on April 24, 2021 in this 3. liga - Center fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lokomotíva Zvolen host Fiľakovo at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.