Lokomotiva Beograd 4–0 BSK Batajnica

Lokomotiva Beograd

FT

4 – 0

BSK Batajnica

11/21/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18Stadion FK Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiva Beograd56%

×Draw23%

BSK Batajnica21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiva BeogradExpected goals in this matchBSK Batajnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.04

Lokomotiva Beograd

1.86

BSK Batajnica

1.04

Lokomotiva Beograd creates 79% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

0.53

1.56

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Lokomotiva Beograd

1.15

BSK Batajnica

0.53

allows per match

Lokomotiva Beograd

1.56

BSK Batajnica

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiva Beograd+0.00on par

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiva Beograd ↓

BSK Batajnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiva Beograd or draw

79%

Lokomotiva Beograd or BSK Batajnica

77%

Draw or BSK Batajnica

44%

Winning margin

Lokomotiva Beograd wins by 2+

32%

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiva Beograd 1+ goals

84%

Lokomotiva Beograd 2+ goals

55%

Lokomotiva Beograd 3+ goals

28%

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

65%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

28%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiva Beograd (draw refunded)

73%

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiva Beograd at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiva Beograd attack 1.15 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + Lokomotiva Beograd defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiva Beograd scores more

56%

level

23%

BSK Batajnica scores more

21%

Lokomotiva Beograd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiva Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff