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Lokomotiv vs ZOB Ahan — AFC Champions League 2018

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
I. Tukhtakhujaev 90'
M. Tabrizi 25'
4/17/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Lokomotiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv51%
×Draw23%
ZOB Ahan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.88
ZOB Ahan
1.30

Lokomotiv creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.86
ZOB Ahan
1.60

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.00
ZOB Ahan
1.90

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
73%
Lokomotiv or ZOB Ahan
77%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
29%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
29%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
73%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
37%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
66%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.86 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.88

ZOB Ahan attack 1.60 + Lokomotiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
51%
level
23%
ZOB Ahan scores more
27%

Lokomotiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. HosseiniZOB AhanZOB Ahan · M
8.0

Match Events

21'
Oleg Zoteev
25'
M. Tabrizi↳ M. Hosseini
51'
Giorgi Gvelesiani
66'
D. Turopov← O. Zoteev
67'
Kakhi Makharadze
70'
B. Rahmani← M. Tabrizi
80'
H. Gafurov← Nivaldo
90'
Mohammad Rashid Mazaheri
90+1'
G. Hadadifar← M. Hosseini
90'
I. Tukhtakhujaev↳ S. Mirzayev

Possession

70%Lokomotiv

Shots

31Lokomotiv

Pass accuracy

59%Lokomotiv

Statistics

LokomotivZOB
Overview
70%Possession30%
31Total Shots6
10Corners1
7Fouls8
Shots
31Total Shots6
7On Target1
17Off Target3
7Blocked2
17Inside Box3
14Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
614Total Passes283
527Accurate Passes173
86%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs ZOB Ahan

Lokomotiv and ZOB Ahan drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on April 17, 2018.

Goals: M. Tabrizi (25'), I. Tukhtakhujaev (90').

Lokomotiv controlled possession (70%) and registered 31 shots to 6.

The match was played at Lokomotiv Stadium in Tashkent.