Lokomotiv 1–1 Surkhon: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Surkhon

A. Abdurashidov 75'

A. Ismailov 12' (OG)

5/27/2024

Super League · Round 9Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv51%

×Draw25%

Surkhon23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.98

Lokomotiv

1.58

Surkhon

0.98

Lokomotiv creates 61% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 97 away

1.55

creates per match

0.84

1.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Surkhon

0.84

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Surkhon

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

77%

Lokomotiv or Surkhon

75%

Draw or Surkhon

49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

27%

Surkhon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

47%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

21%

Surkhon 1+ goals

62%

Surkhon 2+ goals

26%

Surkhon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

69%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

51%

level

25%

Surkhon scores more

23%

Lokomotiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. IsmailovOwn goal

27'

D. Krajisnik

64'

I. Abdullaev← S. Abdunabiyev

64'

A. Jumayev← A. Karimov

64'

S. Nimely← M. Abdurahmonov

73'

J. Muborakov← D. Krajišnik

73'

B. Askarov← D. Pletnev

73'

K. Saidazimov← U. Khoshimov

75'

A. Abdurashidov

81'

B. Shamsiyev← E. Krimets

84'

A. Turdialiev← A. Abdurashidov

90+2'

A. Turdialiev

Lokomotiv

Surkhon

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Abdurashi

Manager: Y. Nazarov

64'▲I. Abdullaev←▼S. Abdunabiyev

73'▲J. Muborakov←▼D. Krajišnik

84'▲A. Turdialiev←▼A. Abdurashidov

Lokomotiv substitutes

AbdullaevMuborakovTurdialievBaklanovKhoshimboyevAlokho'jaevSindarovErgashev

Manager: F. Davletov

64'▲A. Jumayev←▼A. Karimov

64'▲S. Nimely←▼M. Abdurahmonov

73'▲B. Askarov←▼D. Pletnev

73'▲K. Saidazimov←▼U. Khoshimov

81'▲B. Shamsiyev←▼E. Krimets

Surkhon substitutes

JumayevNimelyAskarovSaidazimovShamsiyevPirmuhamedovMerganovJorayevAbduhamidov