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Lokomotiv vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
2 – 1
Shirak II
Shirak II
10/18/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 11RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv73%
×Draw16%
Shirak II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
2.54
Shirak II
0.87

Lokomotiv creates 192% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.64
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.57
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
89%
Lokomotiv or Shirak II
84%
Draw or Shirak II
27%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
51%
Shirak II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
46%
Shirak II 1+ goals
58%
Shirak II 2+ goals
22%
Shirak II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
87%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.64 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.54

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Lokomotiv defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
73%
level
16%
Shirak II scores more
11%

Lokomotiv at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Shirak II

Lokomotiv beat Shirak II 2-1 in First League on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.