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Lokomotiv vs Rubin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Preview
15:00
Rubin
Rubin
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
49%
Lokomotiv
model favours
49%26%26%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lokomotiv49%
×Draw26%
Rubin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.51
Rubin
1.02

Lokomotiv creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.53
Rubin
1.50

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.53
Rubin
0.50

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
74%
Lokomotiv or Rubin
74%
Draw or Rubin
51%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
25%
Rubin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
44%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
19%
Rubin 1+ goals
64%
Rubin 2+ goals
27%
Rubin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
65%
Rubin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.53 + Rubin defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Rubin attack 1.50 + Lokomotiv defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
49%
level
26%
Rubin scores more
26%

Lokomotiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lokomotiv
WWWWW
Rubin
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv host Rubin

July 18, 2026: Lokomotiv take on Rubin in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.