Lokomotiv 1–3 Neftchi: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Neftchi

J. Jumaboyev 90+1'

S. Kuziyev 89'

S. Abdullajonov 75'

I. Abdullaev 35'

10/3/2022

Super League · Round 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Lokomotiv35%

×Draw28%

Neftchi37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.22

Lokomotiv

1.17

Neftchi

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 61 away

1.55

creates per match

1.31

1.13

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Neftchi

1.31

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Neftchi

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

63%

Lokomotiv or Neftchi

72%

Draw or Neftchi

65%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

14%

Neftchi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

69%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

33%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

11%

Neftchi 1+ goals

70%

Neftchi 2+ goals

34%

Neftchi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

48%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.17

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

35%

level

28%

Neftchi scores more

37%

Neftchi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

I. Abdullaev

44'

S. Opeh

50'

U. Khoshimov

53'

J. Jaloliddinov← N. Toshpo‘latov

63'

K. Mukhtarov← D. Komilov

63'

M. Jumayev← I. Rashidkhanov

68'

S. Abdullajonov← I. Abdullaev

75'

S. Abdullajonov

77'

J. Alijanov← A. Salimov

77'

G. Gulyamov← M. Meliev

80'

S. Ubaydullaev← U. Khoshimov

88'

M. Ubaydullayev← U. Adhamzoda

88'

S. Kuziyev← A. Ismailov

89'

S. Kuziyev

90+1'

J. Jumaboyev

Lokomotiv

Neftchi

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Djeparov

53'▲J. Jaloliddinov←▼N. Toshpo‘latov

63'▲K. Mukhtarov←▼D. Komilov

63'▲M. Jumayev←▼I. Rashidkhanov

77'▲J. Alijanov←▼A. Salimov

77'▲G. Gulyamov←▼M. Meliev

Lokomotiv substitutes

JaloliddinovMukhtarovJumayevAlijanovGulyamovYo'ldoshevAbdualimovNartadjievKomilov

Manager: V. Ezhurov

68'▲S. Abdullajonov←▼I. Abdullaev

80'▲S. Ubaydullaev←▼U. Khoshimov

88'▲M. Ubaydullayev←▼U. Adhamzoda

88'▲S. Kuziyev←▼A. Ismailov

Neftchi substitutes

AbdullajonovUbaydullaevUbaydullayevKuziyevGulomovMishchenkoOlimovStanojevićMukhammadjonov