Lokomotiv 2–1 Masis: Result & Stats | First League

Lokomotiv

FT

2 – 1

Masis

6/12/2020

First League · Round 25RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv74%

×Draw15%

Masis10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchMasis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.85

Lokomotiv

2.60

Masis

0.85

Lokomotiv creates 206% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.64

creates per match

1.14

0.57

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Lokomotiv

2.64

Masis

1.14

allows per match

Lokomotiv

0.57

Masis

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Masis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

90%

Lokomotiv or Masis

85%

Draw or Masis

26%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

53%

Masis wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

92%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

73%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

47%

Masis 1+ goals

57%

Masis 2+ goals

21%

Masis 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

88%

Masis (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.64 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.60

Masis attack 1.14 + Lokomotiv defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

74%

level

15%

Masis scores more

10%

Lokomotiv at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff