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Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
8/7/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Lokomotiv Stadium
Big match
48%
Lokomotiv
model favours
48%24%27%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lokomotiv48%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Samarqand27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.65
Dinamo Samarqand
1.18

Lokomotiv creates 40% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.55
Dinamo Samarqand
1.23

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.13
Dinamo Samarqand
1.74

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
73%
Lokomotiv or Dinamo Samarqand
76%
Draw or Dinamo Samarqand
52%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
48%
level
24%
Dinamo Samarqand scores more
27%

Lokomotiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lokomotiv
DDWLW
Samarqand
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv host Dinamo Samarqand

August 7, 2026: Lokomotiv take on Dinamo Samarqand in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv host Dinamo Samarqand at Lokomotiv Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.