Lokomotiv 0–2 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dinamo Samarqand

A. Hojimirzaev 37'

U. Abdullayev 15'

6/17/2024

Super League · Round 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lokomotiv48%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Samarqand27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.18

Lokomotiv

1.65

Dinamo Samarqand

1.18

Lokomotiv creates 40% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 62 away

1.55

creates per match

1.23

1.13

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

73%

Lokomotiv or Dinamo Samarqand

76%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

52%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

25%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

49%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

48%

level

24%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

27%

Lokomotiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

29'

37'

46'

46'

A. Yo'ldoshev← D. Krajišnik

46'

K. Iminov← F. Ikramov

61'

D. Komilov

62'

S. Abdunabiyev← I. Bulatović

67'

A. Yuldashev

70'

K. Khalilov← S. Shaakhmedov

78'

M. Hasanov← S. Sindarov

80'

V. Oqbutayev← F. Narh

90'

V. Oqbotayev

90+3'

B. Nasimov← A. Hojimirzaev

90+3'

D. Temirov← V. Oqbutayev

Lokomotiv

Dinamo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Krestinin

46'▲A. Yo'ldoshev←▼D. Krajišnik

62'▲S. Abdunabiyev←▼I. Bulatović

78'▲M. Hasanov←▼S. Sindarov

Lokomotiv substitutes

Yo'ldoshevAbdunabiyevHasanovAbdurashidovBaklanovAbdullaevMuborakovAbdumajidovUsmonxo'jayev

Manager: V. Abramov

46'▲K. Iminov←▼F. Ikramov

70'▲K. Khalilov←▼S. Shaakhmedov

80'▲V. Oqbutayev←▼F. Narh

90+3'▲B. Nasimov←▼A. Hojimirzaev

90+3'▲D. Temirov←▼V. Oqbutayev

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

IminovKhalilovOqbutayevNasimovTemirovMuydinovYaghrRahmatovAsadullayev

Super League: Lokomotiv 0–2 Dinamo Samarqand

Dinamo Samarqand beat Lokomotiv 2-0 in Super League on June 17, 2024.

Goals: U. Abdullayev (15'), A. Hojimirzaev (37').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.

Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Lokomotiv 0–2 Dinamo Samarqand