Lokomotiv 3–1 Dilijan: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

3 – 1

Dilijan

11/22/2019

First League · Round 15RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv84%

×Draw10%

Dilijan6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchDilijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.40

0.82

Lokomotiv

3.40

Dilijan

0.82

Lokomotiv creates 315% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

2.64

creates per match

1.08

0.57

allows per match

4.15

creates per match

Lokomotiv

2.64

Dilijan

1.08

allows per match

Lokomotiv

0.57

Dilijan

4.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Dilijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Dilijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

94%

Lokomotiv or Dilijan

90%

Draw or Dilijan

16%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

67%

Dilijan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

96%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

84%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

64%

Dilijan 1+ goals

56%

Dilijan 2+ goals

20%

Dilijan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

94%

Dilijan (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Dilijan away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.64 + Dilijan defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.40

Dilijan attack 1.08 + Lokomotiv defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

84%

level

10%

Dilijan scores more

6%

Lokomotiv at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff