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Lokomotiv vs Baltika — Cup 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
8/13/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 2RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv48%
×Draw24%
Baltika28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.65
Baltika
1.19

Lokomotiv creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.00
Baltika
1.43

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.95
Baltika
1.29

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
72%
Lokomotiv or Baltika
76%
Draw or Baltika
52%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
25%
Baltika wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
23%
Baltika 1+ goals
70%
Baltika 2+ goals
33%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
64%
Baltika (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.00 + Baltika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Baltika attack 1.43 + Lokomotiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
48%
level
24%
Baltika scores more
28%

Lokomotiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Baltika

Lokomotiv beat Baltika 2-0 in Cup on August 13, 2025.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moscow.