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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Zorya Luhansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
1/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia25%
×Draw20%
Zorya Luhansk56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.54
Zorya Luhansk
2.36

Zorya Luhansk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.47
Zorya Luhansk
3.80

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
0.93
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
44%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Zorya Luhansk
80%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
75%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
11%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
20%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
90%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
68%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
31%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 3.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.47 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zorya Luhansk attack 3.80 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
25%
level
20%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
56%

Zorya Luhansk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Zorya Luhansk

Lokomotiv Sofia and Zorya Luhansk drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 25, 2026.