Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 Yantra 2019: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Yantra 2019

S. Dikov 90+1'

T. Ivanov 83'

H. Mitev 28'

I. Petkov 22'

5/6/2021

Second League · Round 31Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia51%

×Draw27%

Yantra 201922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchYantra 2019

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.86

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.46

Yantra 2019

0.86

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 70% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 100 away

1.70

creates per match

0.95

0.78

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.70

Yantra 2019

0.95

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.78

Yantra 2019

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Yantra 2019 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

78%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Yantra 2019

73%

Draw or Yantra 2019

49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

26%

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

18%

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

58%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

21%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

70%

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.70 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

51%

level

27%

Yantra 2019 scores more

22%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

I. Petkov

28'

H. Mitev

46'

V. Semerdzhiev← G. Babaliev

47'

M. Roca

55'

K. Gadzhalov

59'

A. Stoimenov← I. Petkov

60'

I. Ivanov← V. Michev

62'

G. Dolapchiev← Matheus Duarte

70'

D. Videv

73'

I. Pisarov← H. Kozhuharov

75'

M. Petkov

76'

T. Pavlov← K. Miloshev

83'

T. Ivanov

84'

G. Varbanov← D. Videv

90+1'

S. Dikov

Lokomotiv

Yantra

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Kolev

46'▲V. Semerdzhiev←▼G. Babaliev

62'▲G. Dolapchiev←▼Matheus Duarte

76'▲T. Pavlov←▼K. Miloshev

Lokomotiv Sofia substitutes

SemerdzhievDolapchievPavlovStefanovIvanovNikolovIstatkov

Manager: K. Angelov

59'▲A. Stoimenov←▼I. Petkov

60'▲I. Ivanov←▼V. Michev

73'▲I. Pisarov←▼H. Kozhuharov

84'▲G. Varbanov←▼D. Videv

Yantra 2019 substitutes

StoimenovIvanovPisarovVarbanovKolevGeorgievIvanov

Second League: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 Yantra 2019

Yantra 2019 beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-1 in Second League on May 6, 2021.

Goals: I. Petkov (22'), H. Mitev (28'), T. Ivanov (83'), S. Dikov (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 Yantra 2019