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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
5/2/2022First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia43%
×Draw29%
Tsarsko Selo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Tsarsko Selo
0.97

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 48 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Tsarsko Selo
0.69

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Tsarsko Selo
1.35

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
71%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Tsarsko Selo
71%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
57%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
19%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
13%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
62%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
25%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
60%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
43%
level
29%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
29%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Tsarsko Selo

Lokomotiv Sofia and Tsarsko Selo drew 0-0 in First League on May 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.