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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Krumovgrad — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
4/25/2025First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 1Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia43%
×Draw29%
Levski Krumovgrad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Levski Krumovgrad
0.97

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 37 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Levski Krumovgrad
0.68

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Levski Krumovgrad
1.35

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
71%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Levski Krumovgrad
71%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
57%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
19%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
13%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
62%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
25%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
60%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
43%
level
29%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
29%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Krumovgrad

Lokomotiv Sofia beat Levski Krumovgrad 3-0 in First League on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.