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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
9/2/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia46%
×Draw27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.03

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.72

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
73%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
73%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
54%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
23%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
18%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
64%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
28%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
63%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
46%
level
27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
27%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–3 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Etar Veliko Tarnovo beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-1 in First League on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.