Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
9/16/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia29%
×Draw28%
CSKA Sofia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
0.99
CSKA Sofia
1.29

CSKA Sofia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 133 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
57%
Lokomotiv Sofia or CSKA Sofia
72%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
10%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
8%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
37%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
40%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
29%
level
28%
CSKA Sofia scores more
43%

CSKA Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-0 in First League on September 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.