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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
5/7/2025First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia47%
×Draw26%
Botev Vratsa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.52
Botev Vratsa
1.09

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 136 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
73%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Botev Vratsa
74%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
53%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
24%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
20%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
66%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
30%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
63%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
47%
level
26%
Botev Vratsa scores more
27%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa

Lokomotiv Sofia beat Botev Vratsa 3-0 in First League on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.