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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Beroe — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beroe
Beroe
4/9/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia41%
×Draw28%
Beroe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.30
Beroe
1.09

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 138 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
69%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Beroe
72%
Draw or Beroe
59%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
19%
Beroe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
73%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
14%
Beroe 1+ goals
66%
Beroe 2+ goals
30%
Beroe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
57%
Beroe (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Beroe attack 0.93 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
41%
level
28%
Beroe scores more
31%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Beroe

Lokomotiv Sofia beat Beroe 2-1 in First League on April 9, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.