Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arda Kardzhali

12/9/2023

First League · Round 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia37%

×Draw29%

Arda Kardzhali35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.12

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.16

Arda Kardzhali

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

1.15

creates per match

0.99

1.25

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.15

Arda Kardzhali

0.99

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.25

Arda Kardzhali

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

65%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Arda Kardzhali

71%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

63%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

15%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

69%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

32%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

11%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

67%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

31%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

51%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

37%

level

29%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

35%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff